Home sales projection off to a rough start

When the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce and the College of Charleston released their annual economic forecast in March, the real estate market predictions stole the show.

The group's forecast, based on figures spit out by an econometric forecasting model, called for the local housing slump to reverse over the course of the year. It predicted that the year's home sales, a dominant indicator of market health, would beat last year's numbers by an encouraging 6 percent. Specifically, it calls for 12,972 Charleston-area home sales in 2008. Last year, 11,530 homes changes hands.

But my skepticism about this projection grows each month with the arrival of new sales figures from the Charleston Trident Association of Realtors. For the first four months of this year, sales numbers haven't increased over last year. In fact, they've fallen far below last year's numbers, by 29.9 percent so far.

That's a lot of catching up to do during the next 7 1/2 months.

Mary Graham, the chamber's senior vice president for public policy, said she's still optimistic about hitting a 6 percent increase. She said the local real estate market perked up a bit in April, and she pointed to a national pickup in construction permits.

Plus, the forecast does call for the turnaround to happen in the second part of the year.

"I still think that all the second half of the year is going to be stronger than the first," she said.

College of Charleston economics professor Frank Hefner doesn't think local home sales will record a 6 percent increase. Instead, he predicts "maybe some growth" by the end of the year.

Growing industry, which leads to more jobs, is the key economic factor that will determine an uptick. So far, that indicator is expected to be positive throughout 2008, he said. "How positive? That's the big question," he added.

If sales don't meet the chamber's projections, it would mark the second year that the group's forecast called for an increase in sales but the region ultimately recorded fewer sales.

Counting commercial

The National Association of Realtors, which focuses heavily on residential real estate issues and resources, has created a searchable online database of commercial properties. The database is accessible at www. commercialsource.com.

The association always has had a residential bent, but officials point out that 70,000 of its 1.2 million members are "engaged full-time in commercial practice," according to a press release announcing the site. The database is similar to a multiple listing service's home search. Already, the site has hundreds of listings for the Charleston area.

The concept of a commercial property database isn't new. LoopNet.com has a healthy amount of commercial listings, too, although some properties are accessible only to those who pay for a subscription.

Affordable venture

The Humanities Foundation, a local nonprofit that builds affordable housing, got one of the city approvals it needs to develop a wooded lot in West Ashley.

President Tracy Doran told Charleston City Council members last month that her group plans to build 72 units of elderly housing and 72 units of family-style housing at Ashley River Road and William Kennerty Drive. The land once was earmarked for a 111-unit luxury community called Veranda Townhomes that fell through after the real estate market slowed.

Residents of the proposed community would have to qualify to live there, earning between 60 percent and 120 percent of the area's median income. The units would be built with environmentally friendly techniques, she said.

The project's timeline moving forward is unclear, Doran added, because it hinges on getting a tax credit approval, which is expected to be awarded this summer.

Lease terms

In Continental Terminals Inc.'s warehouse lease announced last week, Josh Jones and Nelson Poe represented the building owner, Spartanburg-based Johnson Development Associates Inc., in the transaction. Hagood Morrison and Amanda Kitchens of Colliers Keenan represented the tenant.

Reach Katy Stech at 937-5549 or kstech@postandcourier.com.