Graying of S.C. to have big impact

Expert offers insights on housing, health jobs

Give it two decades, and the Palmetto State could be the new Florida — perhaps with fewer shuffleboards.

A demographer said that one in five of us will be over 65 by 2030. It will have wide-ranging effects on housing, jobs and health care.

South Carolina has 650,000 residents over the age of 65, and the state is forecast to have 1 million people in that category by 2030, said Jerome McKibben, who is speaking on "Aging and Regional Planning" today in Charleston as part of the 68th annual Municipal Association of South Carolina meeting.

He said by phone that elderly people in South Carolina tend to stay in the same area when they retire, and if they do move it is usually less than 100 miles. The state has 4.2 million people. By 2025 the South Carolina population will be 5.1 million, and the number of Charleston County residents will grow by 18.8 percent to 392,000, McKibben forecasts.

The next surge in new home construction will be for smaller, easy-to-maintain dwellings as baby boomers swell the ranks of those over age 65, he said.

The boomers will be looking to sell their bigger houses to get into something that better suits their lifestyle. Children will be grown and gone, so they won't need as much space. They may be less able to get around, so a two-story house with stairs to climb no longer makes sense, McKibben said.

A flood of baby boomer houses will be dumped into the market as a new crop of senior citizens looks to downsize. Beginning in 2015 and for the next 20 years, there will be as many home sellers over the age of 65 as buyers in their 20s and 30s, McKibben said.

"There will be less demand for new home construction," he said.

Health-care jobs

The steadily increasing numbers of seniors will mean plenty of jobs in fields that provide services for them, McKibben said.

"The number of residents turning 65 will do nothing but go up for the next 20 years," he said. If a young person asks for career advice, McKibben said he tells them, "Tie in with aging, with gerontology. You're safe."

The Comfort Keepers franchise has found a niche in Mount Pleasant and is considering expanding to Summerville and Goose Creek.

Thomas Doyle, a registered nurse and former Navy medic, opened Comfort Keepers four years ago. It provides non-medical, in-home companion care on an hourly, daily, weekly or live-in basis for individuals needing assistance with daily living, according to a company press release.

The company says that many adult children do not live near their aging parents, and the difficulties associated with long-distance care-giving present an unprecedented need for senior care services. And seniors prefer to stay in their homes. Comfort Keepers, which is based in Dayton, Ohio, has more than 550 franchised locations in 47 U.S. states and six other countries.

McKibben conducted a demographic study for the town of Mount Pleasant last year. He is president and senior demographer for McKibben Demographic Research in Rock Hill.

The study determined that about 80 percent of the population will stay put in the coming decades, which will give the community an increasingly older, grayer look. The town population is forecast to increase by 24 percent to 73,300 by the year 2025.

Because of the "empty nest" syndrome, many areas in the town will see a steady increase in the median age of residents, even while the town as a whole continues to attract some new young families.

Reach Prentiss Findlay at pfindlay@postandcourier.com or 937-5711.