Superdelegates might be superpowerIf Clinton-Obama race remains too close to call, select group could settle it By Robert Behre (Contact)
The Post and Courier
Thursday, February 7, 2008
If Clinton-Obama race remains too close to call, select group could settle it 
Because neither Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois nor Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York scored a knockout punch Tuesday, there's a growing chance that the Democratic presidential nomination could be settled in a rather undemocratic way. And that excites Broad Street lawyer Waring Howe, one of hundreds of so-called "superdelegates" to the Democratic National Convention. These delegates aren't bound by their state's caucus or primary results; they've got the leeway to pick whichever candidate they want, and then change their minds. And their vote counts as much as other delegates chosen by thousands of voters. In this tight race expected to grow tighter still, they could decide it all when they meet this August in Denver. So far, South Carolina's superdelegates are like the national ones; they favor Clinton 2-to-1. But five of the eight superdelegates, including U.S. Reps. Jim Clyburn and John Spratt, are undeclared, but not necessarily undecided. In the coming weeks, as Clinton and Obama campaign in the remaining state contests, there will be another political contest going on beneath the surface as their supporters try to twist arms or win the hearts of the superdelegates, just in case. The Democratic nominee needs 2,025 delegates to win. After Super Tuesday, Clinton and Obama have earned 811 and 794 regular delegates, respectively, based on The Associated Press' tally of primary and caucus results. Political observers estimate that Clinton already has the support of almost 200 of the 796 superdelegates, while Obama has only about half that number. But Howe is one of them — the only declared Obama backer among South Carolina's eight superdelegates — one who was singled out by Obama during his North Charleston High School rally last month. (Howe remains an Obama-backer even though the Illinois senator did mispronounce his first name as "warring" instead of "wearing.") Howe said he's backing Obama because he thinks he would be a stronger candidate against likely GOP nominee Arizona Sen. John McCain. The "electability" issue eventually could be a consideration for all superdelegates, who may be asked to choose between their support of one candidate and their belief that the other candidate would have a better chance in the general election. "And No. 2," Howe said, "Obama also is genuine about uniting this country." Howe, whose support was solidified partly by the good seats his wife got for the Obama-Oprah Winfrey rally in Columbia, said he is making calls to "good friends" and fellow superdelegates to bring them over to Obama's side. Asked if he thought that superdelegates like himself could decide things, Howe replied, "Wouldn't that be interesting? ... This is the most exciting part of politics there is for me." The prospect of superdelegates playing a deciding role stems not only from the closeness of the race but also because future contests might decide the race since the Democratic Party has few, if any, remaining winner-take-all races, said University of South Carolina political science professor Blease Graham. "It's maybe a little bit misleading to say a candidate has won a state because the delegations are going to be split in many instances," he said. For instance, Clinton won most of the caucus vote in Nevada, but Obama won more delegates there. "The delegate count is complicated, going up the rungs of the ladder so to speak, and it could be that the pot of gold on top of the ladder is these superdelegates," Graham said. "I don't think that's gone unnoticed by these campaigns." There are several paths to becoming a superdelegate. Some, like Spratt and Clyburn, are there by virtue of their congressional seats. S.C. Democratic Party Chairwoman Carol Fowler and Vice Chairman Wilbur Lee Jeffcoat also serve as superdelegates because of their party posts. Fowler's husband, Don, is a superdelegate for life because he once led the Democratic National Committee. Others, like Howe, Florence executive Marva Smalls and S.C. Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter, D-Orangeburg, are elected as superdelegates by those attending the state party convention. This convention, which meets next in May, also will pick one more superdelegate. If the remaining rounds of primaries and caucuses don't get Clinton or Obama to the magical 2,025 number, more than superdelegates will come into play. There also could be a big fight over whether Florida's or Michigan's delegates should count. The Democratic National Committee erased those states' delegates as punishment for moving their primary dates, but Clinton — who won them both — is expected to fight to change that. Also, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who suspended his campaign after his third-place South Carolina showing, still has 26 delegates that he could urge toward Clinton or Obama, should he choose to do so. Some question whether a protracted Democratic race that ends up getting settled in some smoke-filled (or bottled-water-filled) room in Denver will be a fatal blow to the party's nominee. Graham said that's possible. "In the post-Watergate environment, anything that looks like insider politics has to be bad," he said. "The candidate who is burdened with a smoke-filled room is going to have to use some resources to explain that away." Howe is among those who are more optimistic. "Look how much interest there is following the process and the competition as it goes along," he said. "This is our race to lose whether it be Clinton or Obama." One thing is sure: The closer this race remains, the busier the pundits will be. "It just almost has to play itself out to see how one set of circumstances will lead to the next set of questions," Graham said. Reach Robert Behre at rbehre@postandcourier.com or 937-5771.. |
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Comments
This article has 19 comment(s)
Posted by wpc3iop on February 7, 2008 at 5:08 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I suspect the idealistic Obama supporters are going to learn a lesson about "back room" politics from the Clintons and the Democratic Party powers that be...
Posted by Early on February 7, 2008 at 8:23 a.m. (Suggest removal)
If I were Howe I would be driving a nice car, going to nice restaurants, driving my 36 Blackfin (boat) to Shem Creek for toddies. Yep I would be the bribed king. Lol
Boy oh boy, McCain scares me even though I vote conservative Republican, I can’t bear the thought of Hillary and Bill back in the White House, what an average white boy to do?
Posted by RTC on February 7, 2008 at 8:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I agree, Early, McCain scares me too.
If you really knew Howe you might even be more scared.
Posted by crankyyankee on February 7, 2008 at 9:24 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I can't believe that any republican would look at McCain's voting record over the last twenty years and think he is a good fit. I'd be willing to bet most haven't! McCain is a strange one for sure. He rails about big business but most of his funding comes from lobbyists. He votes against tax breaks then says we can't afford to let them expire. He takes an oath to uphold the Countries immigration laws then tells us it's impossible to do without so much as trying. Who is this guy and why is he running as a republican? Didn't he try to change parties some years ago? I believe he did! Best that can happen for republicans would be McCain picking Newt as a running mate and then going into a comma for eight years. Like he hasn't been in one for the past thirty!
Posted by RTC on February 7, 2008 at 9:47 a.m. (Suggest removal)
cranky, I think McCain either has the onset of Alzheimer's or he is just plain losing it. The guy is getting pretty old.
I had never heard about his possibly changing parties, but it wouldn't surprise me. I really just can't get past his views on illegals.
I will, however, not discredit the man's military service.
He at least has that background in his favor.
This whole election has me depressed, as I just don't see any good coming out of it.
Posted by crankyyankee on February 7, 2008 at 10:07 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Since when does having been a war hostage qualify you for public office? Trent Lott and several other republican leaders had to persuade McCain not to jump ship in 2002, if I'm not mistaken. I may be on the date but not on the fact he wanted to be a dem and still does.
Posted by captivated on February 7, 2008 at 10:27 a.m. (Suggest removal)
After spending five and a half years in a prison camp, McCain has got to be suffering from post traumatic stress! Who's to say he won't wake up from a nightmare one morning and start pushing buttons? VERY SCARY!!!!
Posted by TP on February 7, 2008 at 10:27 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Here's a scary thought. If Clinton is elected, that will mean that, for 24 (and possibly 28) years, only TWO FAMILIES will have run our country (Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton...). Two. Am I the only one that has a problem with that?
Spare me on the "but Obama doesn't have experience.." arguments. What experience did our current President have? Lack of experience may be Barrack's best quality; lack of experience conducting 'business as usual' in Washington. Time for a change.
Posted by inthelowcountry on February 7, 2008 at 10:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Judging by the feelings on here about McCain, I'd say Republicans now know Democrats felt in 2004 when the Democratic nominee was...John Kerry! A Republican nominee who's barely a Republican...that's rich.
Posted by stanish on February 7, 2008 at 10:31 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I think this whole primary is exciting. I supported Hillary but has much respect for Sen. Obama. I see the under cover RACIST on here refering him to Osama. Why isn't your illustrious Pres. Bush capured him yet with his nearly eight years in office? I'll be happy with either Clinton or Obama. John McCain is a moderate Republican who will much better than Pres. Dumbya. Remember the conservatives threw their support behind Supreme Court justice David Souter an what a darling liberal he has been to us.
Posted by blah_blah_blah on February 7, 2008 at 11:01 a.m. (Suggest removal)
RTC:
"This whole election has me depressed, as I just don't see any good coming out of it."
I see your side of the argument judging on your political stance. I, however, will politely and whole-heartedly disagree with your statement. I am super excited about the elections and judging by the record number of voters all throughout the country, the majority agrees with me. I love Obama, less time in office means less favors he has to give to the big corps. McCain is great, old and favors the war, but is a great leader with great perseverance. Clinton, not a big fan of, but look at how great the 8 years were economically for the US with Bill in, whether he was pleasured or not, at least no one died.
In my opinion, extreme lefts and rights turn voters off. That is why Obama and McCain, both leaning toward the center, are so popular after 8 years of way off in right field.
Posted by mysticlady on February 7, 2008 at 12:11 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I agree with blah
If you are a liberal you have more of a chance of conservatives voting for your liberal candidate if they are not way over to the liberal side and vice versa. Obama and McCain are at least closer to the middle than other candidates, which means more than likely someone like that could unite the parties better than a far right or far left.
Posted by devster on February 7, 2008 at 12:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)
stanish:
Obama just sounds like Osama. I can't even make the race connection you are referring to.
The people that don't like Obama refer to him as Osama so as to try and say he is a terrorist. How is this a racist thing to say?
If his name rhymed with Adolf, they would try to liken him to a Nazi.
Posted by Chief_SittingBull on February 7, 2008 at 12:46 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Can someone explain this "superdelegates" business? My understanding is it is a mini-electoral college [or at least the electoral college concept]. Is that right?
Your vote may not necessary "count," if you delegate goes with some other candidate...
Posted by blah_blah_blah on February 7, 2008 at 1:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Romney's Done (unofficially)
http://www.cnn.com/
Posted by blah_blah_blah on February 7, 2008 at 1:07 p.m. (Suggest removal)
devster;
to assume a race of people (arabs), to which common male names are Osama, are ALL terrorists, is racist.
Posted by blah_blah_blah on February 7, 2008 at 3:28 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Geechie,
thanks for the information. I am so glad McCain chose what was best for America and not just what his party believes, that is what America needs. I would vote for him now, but its all GObama for me!
Drilling for oil is like installing an 8 track in your new Hummer. Outdated.
Posted by blah_blah_blah on February 7, 2008 at 4:10 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Geechie
I understand your point, and I was around in the 70's. First let me say, I would rather not give a penny for any foreign oil. My sarcastic and unfunny line was supposed to highlight the "finite"ness of everyone's oil. Lets scrap oil altogether. I mean, they are making cars that can run on french fry grease, that's in infinite supply! haha.
Posted by blah_blah_blah on February 8, 2008 at 8:52 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I support a more independent America. I drive a hybrid, so I use LESS foreign oil than you. Just because there isn't a vegetable oil home heating system, doesn't mean we can't create one. There is enough solar energy hitting the Earth in 44 minutes to power the entire US for a year.
I am with you on being independent, I am also for renewable energy, so we are guaranteed independence for the future.