Lowcountry keeps eye on Fay's track

Keep a wary eye on the tropics this weekend.

Tropical Storm Fay formed in the Caribbean near Hispaniola late Friday with a possible bead on Florida or the Southeast by early next week.

Fay's maximum winds were 40 mph on Friday and it is expected to remain a tropical storm until Monday as it crosses Caribbean islands.

The storm's track remains indefinite because of its slow movement and interaction with mountainous terrain in Hispaniola, but it is expected to move west toward Cuba before turning north, said hurricane specialist Daniel Brown of the National Hurricane Center.

"It has gotten better organized since last night and this morning, and more thunderstorms are near the center along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic," Brown said Friday.

The system is expected to move west toward east Cuba by late tonight and could turn northward through the Keys, western Florida or into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday, Brown said.

"There is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast right now," he said.

Two factors that could come into play in the track are a high-pressure ridge over the western Atlantic that might slide eastward and allow the system to move northward around it and a trough of low pressure moving from west to east across the eastern U.S. that could pick it up and turn it northward, Brown said.

"A slow-moving system will track toward Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico," said AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.

"If the system picks up speed, it could turn east of Florida and head toward the Carolinas."

Brown advises anyone in the Southeast should pay attention and keep in mind that it's out there.

"For people in the Carolinas, it depends on where it makes its turn, but there still could be rainfall effects," he said.

Reach Warren Wise at 745-5850 or wwise@postandcourier.com.